Assessing the global threat from Zika virus | Science

Assessing the global threat from Zika virus | Science

Assessing the global threat from Zika virus

1. Justin Lessler¹,*,^†, 
2. Lelia H. Chaisson¹,^†, 
3. Lauren M. Kucirka¹,², 
4. Qifang Bi¹, 
5. Kyra Grantz³, 
6. Henrik Salje¹,⁴,
7. Andrea C. Carcelen⁵, 
8. Cassandra T. Ott¹, 
9. Jeanne S. Sheffield⁶, 
10. Neil M. Ferguson⁷, 
11. Derek A. T. Cummings³,
12. C. Jessica E. Metcalf⁸,⁹, 
13. Isabel Rodriguez-Barraquer¹

+ Author Affiliations

1. ↵*Corresponding author. E-mail: justin@jhu.edu

1. ↵† These authors contributed equally to this work.

Science  14 Jul 2016:

DOI: 10.1126/science.aaf8160

Abstract

First discovered in 1947, Zika virus (ZIKV) infection remained a little known tropical disease until 2015, when its apparent association with a significant increase in the incidence of microcephaly in Brazil raised alarms worldwide. There is limited information on the key factors that determine the extent of the global threat from ZIKV infection and resulting complications. Here, we review what is known about the epidemiology, natural history, and public health impact of ZIKV infection, the empirical basis for this knowledge, and the critical knowledge gaps that need to be filled.