Case-Fatality Risk Estimates for COVID-19 Calculated by Using a Lag Time for Fatality - Volume 26, Number 6—June 2020 - Emerging Infectious Diseases journal - CDC

Case-Fatality Risk Estimates for COVID-19 Calculated by Using a Lag Time for Fatality - Volume 26, Number 6—June 2020 - Emerging Infectious Diseases journal - CDC

Volume 26, Number 6—June 2020

Research Letter

Case-Fatality Risk Estimates for COVID-19 Calculated by Using a Lag Time for Fatality

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Nick Wilson , Amanda Kvalsvig, Lucy Telfar Barnard, and Michael G. Baker

Author affiliations: University of Otago Department of Public Health, Wellington, New Zealand

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Abstract

We estimated the case-fatality risk for coronavirus disease cases in China (3.5%); China, excluding Hubei Province (0.8%); 82 countries, territories, and areas (4.2%); and on a cruise ship (0.6%). Lower estimates might be closest to the true value, but a broad range of 0.25%–3.0% probably should be considered.

The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is spreading globally; as of March 5, 2020, cases were reported in China and 85 other countries, territories, and areas (1). Disease severity is a particularly crucial parameter for understanding this new disease (2), but accurately estimating the case-fatality risk is difficult because milder cases are not being diagnosed and death is delayed.