Serial Interval of COVID-19 among Publicly Reported Confirmed Cases - Volume 26, Number 6—June 2020 - Emerging Infectious Diseases journal - CDC

Serial Interval of COVID-19 among Publicly Reported Confirmed Cases - Volume 26, Number 6—June 2020 - Emerging Infectious Diseases journal - CDC

Volume 26, Number 6—June 2020

Research Letter

Serial Interval of COVID-19 among Publicly Reported Confirmed Cases

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Zhanwei Du1, Xiaoke Xu1, Ye Wu1, Lin Wang, Benjamin J. Cowling, and Lauren Ancel Meyers 

Author affiliations: University of Texas at Austin, Austin, Texas, USA (Z. Du, L.A. Meyers); Dalian Minzu University, Dalian, China (X. Xu); Beijing Normal University Computational Communication Research Center, Zhuhai, China (Y. Wu); Beijing Normal University School of Journalism and Communication, Beijing, China (Y. Wu); Institut Pasteur, Paris, France (L. Wang); University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China (B.J. Cowling); Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA (L.A. Meyers)

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Abstract

We estimate the distribution of serial intervals for 468 confirmed cases of coronavirus disease reported in China as of February 8, 2020. The mean interval was 3.96 days (95% CI 3.53–4.39 days), SD 4.75 days (95% CI 4.46–5.07 days); 12.6% of case reports indicated presymptomatic transmission.

Key aspects of the transmission dynamics of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) remain unclear (1). The serial interval of COVID-19 is defined as the time duration between a primary case-patient (infector) having symptom onset and a secondary case-patient (infectee) having symptom onset (2). The distribution of COVID-19 serial intervals is a critical input for determining the basic reproduction number (R0) and the extent of interventions required to control an epidemic (3).