Estimates of Pandemic (H1N1) 2009, Beijing | CDC EID

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Volume 16, Number 11–November 2010
Dispatch
Estimates of the True Number of Cases of Pandemic (H1N1) 2009, Beijing, China

Xiaoli Wang, Peng Yang, Holly Seale, Yi Zhang, Ying Deng, Xinghuo Pang, Xiong He, and Quanyi Wang Comments to Author
Author affiliations: Beijing Center for Disease Prevention and Control, Beijing, People's Republic of China (X. Wang, P. Yang, Y. Zhang, Y. Deng, X. Pang, X. He, Q. Wang); Capital Medical University School of Public Health and Family Medicine. Beijing (X. Wang, P. Yang, Y. Zhang, Y. Deng, X. Pang, X. He, Q. Want); and University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia (H. Seale)

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Abstract
During 2009, a total of 10,844 laboratory-confirmed cases of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 were reported in Beijing, People's Republic of China. However, because most cases were not confirmed through laboratory testing, the true number is unknown. Using a multiplier model, we estimated that ≈1.46–2.30 million pandemic (H1N1) 2009 infections occurred.

Infection with a novel swine-origin influenza A (H1N1) virus, currently named pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus, first occurred in the United States and Mexico in early April 2009 (1,2) and then rapidly spread to other regions of the world. As the outbreak expanded, laboratory testing of persons with suspected cases became increasingly impractical, extremely resource intensive, and was discontinued. We assume, therefore, that the number of laboratory-confirmed cases represents only a small fraction of the actual number of infections (3–5). In this study, we used a multiplier model to estimate the true number of cases of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 in Beijing, People's Republic of China.

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Estimates of Pandemic (H1N1) 2009, Beijing | CDC EID

Suggested Citation for this Article

Wang X, Yang P, Seale H, Zhang Y, Deng Y, Pang X, et al. Estimates of the true number of cases of pandemic (H1N1) 2009, Beijing, China. Emerg Infect Dis [serial on the Internet]. 2010 Nov [date cited]. http://www.cdc.gov/EID/content/16/11/1786.htm

DOI: 10.3201/eid1611.100323