Risk prediction for breast Cancer in Han Chinese women based on a cause-specific Hazard model

Lu Wang†,
Liyuan Liu†,
Zhen Lou,
Lijie Ding,
Hui Guan,
Fei Wang,
Lixiang Yu,
Yujuan Xiang,
Fei Zhou,
Fuzhong XueEmail author and
Zhigang YuEmail author View ORCID ID profile

†Contributed equally

BMC Cancer201919:128

https://doi.org/10.1186/s12885-019-5321-1

Received: 19 July 2018
Accepted: 25 January 2019
Published: 7 February 2019

Open Peer Review reports

Abstract

Background

Considering the lack of efficient breast cancer prediction models suitable for general population screening in China. We aimed to develop a risk prediction model to identify high-risk populations, to help with primary prevention of breast cancer among Han Chinese women.

Methods

A cause-specific competing risk model was used to develop the Han Chinese Breast Cancer Prediction model. Data from the Shandong Case-Control Study (328 cases and 656 controls) and Taixing Prospective Cohort Study (13,176 participants) were used to develop and validate the model. The expected/observed (E/O) ratio and C-statistic were calculated to evaluate calibration and discriminative accuracy of the model, respectively.

Results

Compared with the reference level, the relative risks (RRs) for highest level of number of abortions, age at first live birth, history of benign breast disease, body mass index (BMI), family history of breast cancer, and life satisfaction scores were 6.3, 3.6, 4.3, 1.9, 3.3, 2.4, respectively. The model showed good calibration and discriminatory accuracy with an E/O ratio of 1.03 and C-statistic of 0.64.

Conclusions

We developed a risk prediction model including fertility status and relevant disease history, as well as other modifiable risk factors. The model demonstrated good calibration and discrimination ability.