Development of Framework for Assessing Influenza Virus Pandemic Risk - Volume 21, Number 8—August 2015 - Emerging Infectious Disease journal - CDC

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Development of Framework for Assessing Influenza Virus Pandemic Risk - Volume 21, Number 8—August 2015 - Emerging Infectious Disease journal - CDC

Volume 21, Number 8—August 2015

Research

Development of Framework for Assessing Influenza Virus Pandemic Risk

On This Page

• Development of a Framework
• Case Illustrations
• Discussion
• Suggested Citation

Figures

• Figure 1
• Figure 2

Tables

• Table 1
• Table 2
• Table 3
• Table 4

Technical Appendicies

Downloads

• PDF[670 KB - 7 pgs]
• RIS[TXT - 2 KB]

Susan C. Trock , Stephen A. Burke, and Nancy J. Cox

Author affiliations: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA (S.C. Trock, S.A. Burke, N.J. Cox); Battelle, Atlanta (S.A. Burke)

Suggested citation for this article

Abstract

Although predicting which influenza virus subtype will cause the next pandemic is not yet possible, public health authorities must continually assess the pandemic risk associated with animal influenza viruses, particularly those that have caused infections in humans, and determine what resources should be dedicated to mitigating that risk. To accomplish this goal, a risk assessment framework was created in collaboration with an international group of influenza experts. Compared with the previously used approach, this framework, named the Influenza Risk Assessment Tool, provides a systematic and transparent approach for assessing and comparing threats posed primarily by avian and swine influenza viruses. This tool will be useful to the international influenza community and will remain flexible and responsive to changing information.

Pandemic influenza remains a formidable threat to human health. Advances in national pandemic preparedness have been made during recent decades; however, the frequent infection of humans with novel influenza viruses complicates implementation of effective control measures such as vaccines (1). The emergence of the influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus (2), the ongoing outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N1) viruses (3), and, more recently, the identification of severe human infections caused by avian influenza A(H7N9) virus in China (4,5) indicate the need for a more objective, systematic, and transparent approach for evaluating newly emerging influenza viruses with pandemic potential. The Influenza Risk Assessment Tool (IRAT) was developed in response to this need and creates a framework for systematically combining input from influenza experts to support risk management decisions that have important cost implications.

Dr. Trock is a veterinary medical officer in CDC’s Influenza Division. Her efforts focus on animal–human interface activities, particularly as they pertain to influenza.

Acknowledgment

We thank the many persons from the Influenza Division at CDC for their input into the development of the IRAT.

References

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Figures

• Figure 1. Alignment of the Influenza Risk Assessment Tool with a general microbial risk assessment framework. SME, subject matter expert.
• Figure 2. Influenza Risk Assessment Tool scores for 4 influenza viruses on the basis of potential risk to achieve “sustained human-to-human transmission” (emergence) and potential risk “for significant impact on public...

Tables

• Table 1. Risk element categories in the Influenza Risk Assessment Tool
• Table 2. Risk scores and ranked weighting applied to 3 influenza viruses for the question “What is the risk that a virus not currently circulating in the human population has potential for sustained...
• Table 3. Risk scores and ranked weighting applied to 3 influenza viruses for the question “If the virus were to achieve sustained human-to-human transmission, what is the risk that a virus not currently...
• Table 4. Average risk point scores and ranked weighting applied to risk scoring of influenza A(H7N9) virus isolate A/Shanghai/1/2013 for emergence and impact questions, April 2013 and May 2013

Technical Appendix

• . Executive summary of meeting for Influenza Risk Assessment Algorithm Tool, October 18–19, 2011, Alexandria, VA, USA.  213 KB

Suggested citation for this article: Trock SC, Burke SA, Cox NJ. Development of framework for assessing influenza virus pandemic risk. Emerg Infect Dis. 2015 Aug [date cited]. http://dx.doi.org/10.3201/eid2108.141086

DOI: 10.3201/eid2108.141086