Development of Framework for Assessing Influenza Virus Pandemic Risk - Volume 21, Number 8—August 2015 - Emerging Infectious Disease journal - CDC
Volume 21, Number 8—August 2015
Research
Development of Framework for Assessing Influenza Virus Pandemic Risk
Abstract
Although predicting which influenza virus subtype will cause the next pandemic is not yet possible, public health authorities must continually assess the pandemic risk associated with animal influenza viruses, particularly those that have caused infections in humans, and determine what resources should be dedicated to mitigating that risk. To accomplish this goal, a risk assessment framework was created in collaboration with an international group of influenza experts. Compared with the previously used approach, this framework, named the Influenza Risk Assessment Tool, provides a systematic and transparent approach for assessing and comparing threats posed primarily by avian and swine influenza viruses. This tool will be useful to the international influenza community and will remain flexible and responsive to changing information.
Pandemic influenza remains a formidable threat to human health. Advances in national pandemic preparedness have been made during recent decades; however, the frequent infection of humans with novel influenza viruses complicates implementation of effective control measures such as vaccines (1). The emergence of the influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus (2), the ongoing outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N1) viruses (3), and, more recently, the identification of severe human infections caused by avian influenza A(H7N9) virus in China (4,5) indicate the need for a more objective, systematic, and transparent approach for evaluating newly emerging influenza viruses with pandemic potential. The Influenza Risk Assessment Tool (IRAT) was developed in response to this need and creates a framework for systematically combining input from influenza experts to support risk management decisions that have important cost implications.
Dr. Trock is a veterinary medical officer in CDC’s Influenza Division. Her efforts focus on animal–human interface activities, particularly as they pertain to influenza.
Acknowledgment
We thank the many persons from the Influenza Division at CDC for their input into the development of the IRAT.
References
- Iskander J, Strikas RA, Gensheimer KF, Cox NJ, Redd SC. Pandemic influenza planning, United States, 1978–2008. Emerg Infect Dis.2013;19:879–85. DOIPubMed
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Swine influenza A (H1N1) infection in two children—Southern California, March–April 2009. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep. 2009;58:400–2.PubMed
- Sonnberg S, Webby RJ, Webster RG. Natural history of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1. Virus Res. 2013;178:63–77. DOIPubMed
- World Health Organization. Human infection with influenza A(H7N9) virus in China. 2013 April 1 [cited 2015 Jun 10].http://www.who.int/csr/don/2013_04_01/en/index.html
- Parry J. H7N9 avian flu infects humans for the first time. BMJ. 2013;346:f2151. DOIPubMed
- Parkin , RT. Foundations and frameworks for microbial risk assessments. Prepared for the US Environmental Protection Agency National Center for Environmental Assessment. Washington: Center for Risk Science and Public Health, School of Public Health and Health Services, The George Washington University Medical Center. 2008.
- Trock SC, Burke SA, Cox NJ. Development of an influenza virologic risk assessment tool. Avian Dis. 2012;56:1058–61. DOIPubMed
- Dolan JG. Multi-criteria clinical decision support: a primer on the use of multiple criteria decision making methods to promote evidence-based, patient-centered healthcare. Patient. 2010;3:229–48. DOIPubMed
- Phillips LD. A theory of requisite decision models. Acta Psychol. 1984;56:29–48. DOI
- Edwards W, Barron FH. SMARTS and SMARTER: improved simple methods for multiattribute utility measurement. Organ Behav Hum Decis Process. 1994;60:306–25. DOI
- Lindstrom S, Garten R, Balish A, Shu B, Emery S, Berman L, Human infections with novel reassortant influenza A(H3N2)v viruses, United States, 2011. Emerg Infect Dis. 2012;18:834–7. DOIPubMed
- Epperson S, Jhung M, Richards S, Quinlisk P, Ball L, Moll M, Human infections with influenza A(H3N2) variant virus in the United States, 2011–2012.Clin Infect Dis. 2013;57(Suppl 1):S4–11. DOIPubMed
- Skowronski DM, Janjua NZ, Serres GD, Purych D, Gilca V, Scheifele DW, Cross-reactive and vaccine-induced antibody to an emerging swine-origin variant of influenza A virus subtype H3N2 (H3N2v). J Infect Dis. 2012;206:1852–61. DOIPubMed
- Waalen K, Kilander A, Dudman SG, Ramos-Ocao R, Hungnes O. Age-dependent prevalence of antibodies cross-reactive to the influenza A(H3N2) variant virus in sera collected in Norway in 2011. Euro Surveill. 2012;17:pii:20170. http://www.eurosurveillance.org/ViewArticle.aspx?ArticleId=20170.PubMed
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Antibodies cross-reactive to influenza A (H3N2) variant virus and impact of the 2010–11 seasonal influenza vaccine on cross-reactive antibodies—United States. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep. 2012;61:237–41.PubMed
- Jhung MA, Epperson S, Biggerstaff M, Allen D, Balish A, Barnes N, Outbreak of variant influenza A(H3N2) virus in the United States. Clin Infect Dis.2013;57:1703–12 .DOIPubMed
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Influenza A (H3N2) variant virus-related hospitalizations: Ohio, 2012. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep.2012;61:764–7.PubMed
- Reed C, Biggerstaff M, Finelli L, Koonini LM, Beauvais D, Uzicanin A, Novel framework for assessing epidemiologic effects of influenza epidemics and pandemics. Emerg Infect Dis. 2013;19:85–91. DOIPubMed
Figures
Tables
Technical Appendix
Suggested citation for this article: Trock SC, Burke SA, Cox NJ. Development of framework for assessing influenza virus pandemic risk. Emerg Infect Dis. 2015 Aug [date cited]. http://dx.doi.org/10.3201/eid2108.141086
No hay comentarios:
Publicar un comentario