Can an Algorithm Predict the Pandemic’s Next Moves? B Carey, NY Times, July 2, 2020

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 Spotlight on COVID-19

Comparing SARS-CoV-2 with SARS-CoV and influenza pandemics
E Petersen et al, LANcet, July 3, 2020

The paper compare transmissibility, hospitalization, and mortality rates for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) with those of other epidemic coronaviruses, such as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV), and pandemic influenza viruses.

Can an Algorithm Predict the Pandemic’s Next Moves?
B Carey, NY Times, July 2, 2020

Researchers have developed a model that uses social-media and search data to forecast outbreaks of Covid-19 well before they occur.

Tracking changes in SARS-CoV-2 Spike: evidence that D614G increases infectivity of the COVID-19 virus
B Korber et al, Cell, July 2, 2020

A SARS-CoV-2 variant with Spike G614 has replaced D614 as the dominant pandemic form- The consistent increase of G614 at regional levels may indicate a fitness advantage- G614 is associated with lower RT PCR Ct’s, suggestive of higher viral loads in patients- The G614 variant grows to higher titers as pseudotyped virions.

Mortality and Morbidity-The Measure of a Pandemic
JW Zylke et al, JAMA, July 1, 2020

Death seems like it should be an accurate measure of the pandemic’s worst outcome. However, the number of deaths attributed to COVID-19 in official reports is likely an underestimate of deaths caused by COVID-19. In addition, the statistic does not incorporate deaths indirectly attributable to the virus and the measures used to contain it.