Geographical differences on the mortality impact of heat waves in Europe // The impact of heat waves on mortality in 9 European cities

Commentary
Geographical differences on the mortality impact of heat waves in Europe.
Jordi Sunyer

Environmental Health 2010, 9:38doi:10.1186/1476-069X-9-38


Published: 16 July 2010

Abstract (provisional)
Climate change is potentially the biggest global health threat in the 21st century. Deaths related with heat waves and spread of infectious diseases will be part of the menace though the major impact will be caused by malnutrition, diarrhea and extreme climate events. Consequently, loss of healthy life years as a result of global climate change is predicted to be 500 times greater in poor African populations than in European populations. However, the increase of more than 2 degrees C of average temperature will result in a negative health impact in all regions, the potential benefits of a warmer temperature being negatively compensated, heat waves being one of the largest climate change threats in the developed world.

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Research
The impact of heat waves on mortality in 9 European cities: results from the EuroHEAT project
Daniela D'Ippoliti , Paola Michelozzi , Claudia Marino , Francesca de'Donato , Bettina Menne , Klea Katsouyanni , Ursula Kirchmayer , Antonis Analitis , Mercedes Medina-Ramon , Anna Paldy , Richard Atkinson , Sari Kovats , Luigi Bisanti , Alexandra Schneider , Agnes Lefranc , Carmen Iniguez and Carlo A Perucci

Environmental Health 2010, 9:37doi:10.1186/1476-069X-9-37


Published: 16 July 2010

Abstract (provisional)

Background
The present study aimed at developing a standardized heat wave definition to estimate and compare the impact on mortality by gender, age and death causes in Europe during summers 1990-2004 and 2003, separately, accounting for heat wave duration and intensity.

Methods
Heat waves were defined considering both maximum apparent temperature and minimum temperature and classified by intensity, duration and timing during summer. The effect was estimated as percent increase in daily mortality during heat wave days compared to non heat wave days in people over 65 years. City specific and pooled estimates by gender, age and cause of death were calculated.

Results
The effect of heat waves showed great geographical heterogeneity among cities. Considering all years, except 2003, the increase in mortality during heat wave days ranged from +7.6% in Munich to +33.6% in Milan. The increase was up to 3-times greater during episodes of long duration and high intensity. Pooled results showed a greater impact in Mediterranean (+21.8% for total mortality) than in North Continental (+12.4%) cities. The highest effect was observed for respiratory diseases and among women aged 75-84 years. In 2003 the highest impact was observed in cities where heat wave episode was characterized by unusual meteorological conditions.

Conclusions
Climate change scenarios indicate that extreme events are expected to increase in the future even in regions where heat waves are not frequent. Considering our results prevention programs should specifically target the elderly, women and those suffering from chronic respiratory disorders, thus reducing the impact on mortality.

open here please:
http://www.ehjournal.net/content/9/1/37