Frontline BRAF Testing-Guided Treatment for Advanced Melanoma in the Era of Immunotherapies: A Cost-Utility Analysis Based on Long-term Survival Data

Affiliations

PMID: 32697281
DOI: 10.1001/jamadermatol.2020.2398

Abstract

Importance: The effectiveness of immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) and BRAF and MEK inhibitors has improved advanced melanoma recovery. However, it is unknown whether these novel therapies are cost-effective for newly diagnosed advanced melanoma with unknown BRAF status.

Objective: To compare the cost-utility of these novel agents and their combinations with or without BRAF gene testing guidance for treating newly diagnosed advanced melanoma with unknown BRAF status.

Design and setting: A decision-analytic model was adopted to project the outcomes of 8 strategies containing different ICIs and BRAF and MEK inhibitors for newly diagnosed advanced melanoma with unknown BRAF pathogenic variant status. The key clinical data were derived from the CheckMate 067, KEYNOTE-006, COMBI-d, and COMBI-v trials, and the cost and health preference data were derived from the literature. Costs were estimated from the US payer perspective.

Main outcomes and measures: Costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), incremental cost-utility ratio (ICUR), and incremental net health benefits were calculated. Subgroup, 1-way, and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed.

Results: Of the 8 competing strategies, nivolumab plus ipilimumab without patient selection based on BRAF pathogenic variant testing yielded the most significant health outcome, and the nivolumab strategy was the cheapest option. The nivolumab, pembrolizumab, and nivolumab plus ipilimumab strategies formed the cost-effective frontier, which showed the ordered ICURs were $8593 (SD, $592 995)/QALY for pembrolizumab vs nivolumab and $125 593 (SD, $5 751 223)/QALY for nivolumab plus ipilimumab vs pembrolizumab. Other strategies, including the BRAF testing-guided strategies (BRAF pathogenic variant testing followed by corresponding regimens for BRAF wild and pathogenic variant tumors), were dominated or extended dominated. The most influential parameters were the treatment efficacy of these new regimens.

Conclusions and relevance: For newly diagnosed advanced melanoma with unknown BRAF pathogenic variant status, nivolumab plus ipilimumab and pembrolizumab strategies are likely to be the most cost-effective options. BRAF and MEK inhibitors might be productively placed in a second-line setting after BRAF pathogenic variant is confirmed.