How the pandemic might play out in 2021 and beyond

How the pandemic might play out in 2021 and beyond

Possible futures for the pandemic

Around the world, epidemiologists are constructing short- and long-term projections to prepare for, and potentially mitigate, the spread and impact of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. Although their forecasts and timelines vary, modellers agree on two things: COVID-19 is here to stay, and the future depends on a lot of unknowns, including whether people develop lasting immunity to the virus, whether seasonality affects its spread and — perhaps most importantly — the choices made by governments and individuals. In some places, such as in the United States and Brazil, rapid rises in cases have modellers worried. Elsewhere, where lockdowns are easing, early evidence suggests that the ‘new normal’ of hand-washing and mask wearing is helping to stem second waves.

Nature | 11 min read