Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev. 2014 Jun 2. pii: cebp.1364.2013. [Epub ahead of print]
Recent BRCAPRO upgrades significantly improve calibration.
The recent release of version 2.0-8 of the BayesMendel package contains an updated BRCAPRO risk prediction model, which includes revised modeling of Contralateral Breast Cancer (CBC) penetrance, provisions for pedigrees of mixed ethnicity and an adjustment for mastectomies among family members. We estimated penetrance functions for contralateral breast cancer by a combination of parametric survival modeling of literature data and deconvolution of SEER9 data. We then validated the resulting updated model of CBC in BRCAPRO by comparing it with the previous release (BayesMendel 2.0-7), using pedigrees from the Cancer Genetics Network (CGN) Model Validation Study. Version 2.0-8 of BRCAPRO discriminates BRCA1/BRCA2 carriers from non-carriers with similar accuracy compared to the previous version (increase in AUC: 0.0043), is slightly more precise in terms of RMSE (decrease in RMSE: 0.0108), and it significantly improves calibration (ratio of observed to expected events of 0.9765 in version 2.0-8, compared to 0.8910 in version 2.0-7). We recommend that the new version be used in clinical counseling, particularly in settings where families with CBC are common.
Copyright © 2014, American Association for Cancer Research.
- [PubMed - as supplied by publisher]