lunes, 8 de junio de 2020

The Importance of Long-term Care Populations in Models of COVID-19 K Pillemer et al, JAMA, June 5, 2020

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Coronavirus

Both modelers and public health policy makers should recognize that COVID-19 is not a unitary epidemic. It likely consists of multiple, contemporaneous, and intertwined sub-outbreaks prominently including those in long term care settings. Just as the outbreaks occurring in these 2 settings are distinct, the responses to them need to differ.
14 studies with 29,909 COVID-19 infected patients and 1,445 cases of death were included in the current meta-analysis. Older age (=65 years old), male gender, hypertension, CVDs, diabetes, COPD and malignancies were associated with greater risk of death from COVID-19 infection.
Using a Bayesian inference framework to fit a branching process model to viral phylogeny and time series case data, we estimated time-varying reproductive numbers and their variance, the total numbers of infected individuals, the probability of case detection over time, and the estimated time to detection of an outbreak for 12 locations in Europe, China, and US.

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