Valuing the Global Mortality Consequences of Climate Change Accounting for Adaptation Costs and Benefits* Tamma Carleton , Amir Jina , Michael Delgado , Michael Greenstone , Trevor Houser , Solomon Hsiang , Andrew Hultgren , Robert E Kopp , Kelly E McCusker , Ishan Nath ...

Valuing the Global Mortality Consequences of Climate Change Accounting for Adaptation Costs and Benefits* Tamma Carleton , Amir Jina , Michael Delgado , Michael Greenstone , Trevor Houser , Solomon Hsiang , Andrew Hultgren , Robert E Kopp , Kelly E McCusker , Ishan Nath ... https://academic.oup.com/qje/article/137/4/2037/6571943?login=false Using 40 countries’ subnational data, we estimate age-specific mortality-temperature relationships and extrapolate them to countries without data today and into a future with climate change. We uncover a U-shaped relationship where extre6me cold and hot temperatures increase mortality rates, especially for the elderly. Critically, this relationship is flattened by higher incomes and adaptation to local climate. Using a revealed-preference approach to recover unobserved adaptation costs, we estimate that the mean global increase in mortality risk due to climate change, accounting for adaptation benefits and costs, is valued at roughly 3.2% of global GDP in 2100 under a high-emissions scenario. Notably, today’s cold locations are projected to benefit, while today’s poor and hot locations have large projected damages. Finally, our central estimates indicate that the release of an additional ton of CO2 today will cause mortality-related damages of $36.6 under a high-emissions scenario, with an interquartile range accounting for both econometric and climate uncertainty of [−$7.8, $73.0]. These empirically grounded estimates exceed the previous literature’s estimates by an order of magnitude. Heat, air pollution, and global temperature shocks Patrick Behrer October 07, 2026 This page in: English https://blogs.worldbank.org/en/impactevaluations/heat--air-pollution--and-global-temperature-shocks Developing countries face a host of environmental challenges, but two of the most significant are air pollution and climate change. Wealthy countries face both as well, but the highest levels of air pollution, the fastest growth in pollution, and the least climate-resilient populations are all in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Some policies address both problems at once (reducing coal-fired power generation, for example). But win-win solutions do not always exist. Global Temperature and Global Mortality Adrien Bilal, Diego R. Känzig & Krzysztof Lisiecki https://www.nber.org/papers/w35832 This paper documents large indirect mortality impacts of climate change. Exploiting natural global temperature variability, we find that 1°C of warming increases annual mortality by 2.5 deaths per 1,000 individuals, compared to 0.1 deaths per 1,000 due to the associated local heat exposure. Using external estimates of the impact of global income on mortality, we show that the macroeconomic effects of global temperature changes explain two thirds of the gap between these estimates. We use this evidence to estimate damage functions in a neoclassical growth model that links mortality and economic activity and accounts for adaptation to mortality impacts. Mortality contributes $400 per ton of CO₂ to the Social Cost of Carbon, or one quarter of total climate damages. These results suggest that economic adaptation has a double dividend by also reducing climate-related mortality.